| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | L | Michigan State | 6-23 | 1475.5 | -17.7 | 1457.8 | 25.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | North Texas | 30-33 | 1457.8 | +8.7 | 1466.5 | 31.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Illinois | 0-38 | 1466.5 | -17.3 | 1449.2 | 7.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Toledo | 14-13 | 1449.2 | +15.6 | 1464.8 | 18.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Rhode Island | 47-14 | 1464.8 | +39.7 | 1504.5 | 85.4% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 21-3 | 1504.5 | +14.2 | 1518.7 | 84.7% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Ball State | 42-0 | 1518.7 | +34.4 | 1553.1 | 75.0% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Miami (OH) | 17-26 | 1564.1 | -22.6 | 1541.5 | 54.7% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Central Michigan | 24-21 | 1541.5 | -10.8 | 1530.7 | 68.3% |
| 13 | Nov 11 2025 | W | Ohio | 17-13 | 1529.5 | +4.9 | 1534.4 | 41.2% |
| 14 | Nov 18 2025 | W | Northern Illinois | 35-19 | 1534.4 | +23.1 | 1557.5 | 66.9% |
| 15 | Nov 25 2025 | W | Eastern Michigan | 31-21 | 1557.5 | -2.6 | 1554.9 | 76.5% |
| 16 | Dec 6 2025 | W | Miami (OH) | 23-13 | 1554.9 | +12.8 | 1567.7 | 48.8% |
| 18 | Dec 19 2025 | W | Kennesaw State | 41-6 | 1567.5 | +45.1 | 1612.6 | 65.2% |