| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Michigan | 12-13 | 1570.4 | -15.6 | 1554.8 | 21.2% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Monmouth | 49-14 | 1554.8 | +15.5 | 1570.3 | 94.8% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Rice | 28-21 | 1570.3 | -12.1 | 1558.3 | 88.4% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Boise State | 7-32 | 1558.3 | -37.1 | 1521.2 | 38.9% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Buffalo | 20-17 | 1521.2 | -9.5 | 1511.6 | 89.6% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Kent State | 38-7 | 1511.6 | +26.1 | 1537.7 | 86.0% |